Residents of Bristol, Bath, North East Somerset, and South Gloucestershire are gearing up for the May 1 election to select the next West of England Metro Mayor. What sets this election apart is the introduction of a different voting system compared to previous years.
The West of England Combined Authority, led by the metro mayor, plays a crucial role in enhancing regional transportation and facilitating significant investments. With the impending implementation of the Labour government’s English Devolution plans, the position is expected to carry even more influence.
Unlike the past mayoral elections in 2017 and 2021, which employed the “supplementary vote” system, this year’s election will adopt the “first past the post” system, akin to the one used in general elections. Essentially, voters will now cast a single vote for their preferred candidate, without the option for a second preference. The candidate receiving the highest number of votes will emerge victorious. In a race featuring five strong contenders, this means a candidate could potentially secure a win with slightly over a 20% share of the vote.
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Despite the absence of published polls, expert analysis by independent statistician Nigel Marriott suggests that this election could be one of the closest in the country’s history. His forecast indicates a narrow victory for the Greens with 24% of the vote, closely trailed by Labour and Reform at 20%, the Tories at 12%, and independent candidate Ian Scott at 5%. Marriott emphasized the unpredictable nature of this impending election, drawing from his accurate predictions in prior electoral events.
The alteration in the voting system was mandated by the contentious Elections Act 2022, which also mandates the presentation of photo ID during the voting process. Voters must carry an accepted form of photo ID or apply for a temporary voter authority certificate, with the deadline set for April 23.
The roster of candidates in the election is as follows: