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UK Poised for One of Its Warmest Summers on Record in 2025

Provisional data from the Met Office indicates that summer 2025 could become one of the warmest on record in the UK. Between June 1 and August 17, the average temperature has reached 16.2°C—an impressive 1.6°C above the long-term meteorological average.

Despite two weeks of summer remaining, the persistent warmth and consistently above-average temperatures suggest this season may rank among the hottest the UK has experienced. Emily Carlisle, a Met Office scientist, explained, “Summer 2025 is on track to be one of the warmest, if not the warmest, since records began in 1884.”

Carlisle notes the unusual consistency of warm temperatures throughout June and July, even outside heatwaves. This trend is driven by several factors: dry ground conditions from a parched spring, stable high-pressure systems, and warmer-than-usual seas surrounding the UK. Together, these forces cause heat to build up quickly and linger in the atmosphere.

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While peak temperatures—such as this year’s highest recorded 35.8°C in Faversham, Kent—have not surpassed recent record highs like 2022’s 40.3°C, it is the sustained warmth that defines this potentially historic summer. Historically, the warmest UK summers cluster tightly, with 2018, 2006, 2003, 2022, and 1976 ranking as some of the hottest. With summer still ongoing, 2025 is aligning closely with these years.

Both daytime highs and nighttime lows have been significantly above average, especially minimum temperatures. June, though starting cooler due to Atlantic weather influences, ended with a 15.2°C average—1.9°C above normal—and was England’s warmest June on record. Wales and the UK overall recorded their third and second warmest Junes, respectively. July continued the trend with a UK mean temperature of 16.8°C, ranking as the fifth warmest July.

Four short-lived heatwaves have occurred during the summer, each separated by periods of near-average temperatures. Despite these heatwaves, the extreme temperature highs have remained moderate by historical standards. Rainfall for the season is below average at 72% of typical levels, though this varies regionally. Central, southern, and eastern England and Wales are notably dry, whereas northwestern areas, particularly Scotland, have received closer to normal rainfall. Northern Scotland has already experienced 98% of expected seasonal rain, contrasting sharply with the Midlands at only 58%.

This dry summer continues a pattern following England’s driest spring in more than a century and the driest January-July interval since 1929. Sunshine hours have also exceeded average so far, although it’s too early to determine if the summer will break sunshine records.

The persistent heat is linked to a strong high-pressure system, depleted soil moisture limiting cooling effects, and a persistent marine heatwave warming nearby waters. Climate change is an underlying factor, with the UK’s climate warming at roughly 0.25°C per decade.

Summer 2025’s warmth joins recent hot summers like 2023, 2022, and 2018, which rank among the UK’s top ten warmest since 1884, highlighting a clear trend toward increasingly high temperatures.

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