Temperatures in the UK are set to rise, with the potential to reach as high as 27°C in a notable four-day warm spell later this May.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, maximum temperatures could hit 26°C by the evening of May 22, particularly just south of London. Other areas, including parts of Wales, central England, and eastern regions, may experience temperatures in the low to mid-20s Celsius, around 23°C to 24°C.
On May 23, the forecast shows even warmer conditions, with peaks of 27°C predicted across the south-east and 26°C in the Midlands. Most regions of England south of Yorkshire are expected to see temperatures around 24°C, while South Wales could reach 25°C.
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The warmth continues on May 24, with the southern coastline of England again seeing temperatures of around 26°C. Similar highs are expected in the West Midlands and areas near London, while southern Scotland might enjoy mild temperatures near 22°C in the early evening.
The four-day warm period concludes on May 25, with temperatures potentially reaching 25°C in southern and western parts of the UK. The weather charts suggest that 18 counties could experience highs of 25°C or above during this spell.
The Met Office also anticipates conditions warming up by late May, especially across southern England. Their forecast from May 17 to 26 notes that while temperatures may start cooler than average, high pressure building from the south is likely to bring more settled and warmer weather by the end of the period.
Regarding a UK heatwave declaration, it requires temperatures exceeding the heatwave threshold for three consecutive days. These thresholds vary regionally from 25°C to 28°C, with the highest threshold typically in the south-east of England, where temperatures tend to be warmer, and lower thresholds further north.
This upcoming warm spell brings the possibility of meeting heatwave criteria in some areas, though official confirmation awaits.