The latest YouGov poll has revealed that the Green Party is leading the tight race for the next West of England Metro Mayor. This initial insight into the upcoming election on May 1 presents a competitive landscape, with no candidate enjoying a substantial lead.
The West of England Metro Mayor election, spanning across Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset, and South Gloucestershire, is shaping up to be a true five-horse race. YouGov’s poll, the first of its kind for this election, indicates that no more than five percent of the vote separates the five front-runners. At the forefront, Green candidate Mary Page holds a 27% lead, closely followed by Labour’s Helen Godwin at 23%. Reform’s Arron Banks and Conservative Steve Smith are both neck and neck, polling at 18% and 17% respectively. Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat candidate Oli Henman stands at 13%, and independent Ian Scott at 2%.
If the Greens succeed in translating their narrow poll lead into a victory, it will mark a significant milestone, as it would mean that the party has secured victory in all three elections since the inception of the mayoral position.
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In the past, the metro mayor was elected using a “supplementary vote” system, but the upcoming election will adopt the “first past the post” system, aligning with general elections. This adjustment means that voters will now cast a single vote, without the option for a second preference.
The West of England Combined Authority, led by the metro mayor, holds key responsibilities in enhancing regional transportation and driving major investment initiatives. With the Labour government’s English Devolution plans, the authority’s influence is anticipated to expand further.
Notably, the West of England stands out as the only May 1 metro mayor election where the front runner does not represent a right-wing political party. In contrast, Reform UK leads in Greater Lincolnshire and the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral elections, while the Conservatives are ahead in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election. This indicates the high level of competition expected in the West of England.
The YouGov poll, conducted between April 9 and 23, surveyed 1,185 adults in the West of England, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the current political landscape.