Labour has announced an ambitious proposal to lower the voting age to 16 for the upcoming general election, a move that could dramatically alter the political landscape. This change would add approximately 1.55 million new voters aged 16 and 17 to the electoral register, potentially tipping the balance in several closely contested constituencies.
Analysis shows that in 114 constituencies, the number of 16 and 17-year-olds living there exceeds the winning margin from the 2024 general election. This means that if these young voters turn out and vote differently from the incumbent MPs, they could swing the results. Labour currently holds 56 of these seats, Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 7, SNP 5, Reform UK 3, and a handful held by independents, the DUP, Plaid Cymru, and TUV.
Prominent politicians face vulnerabilities due to small majorities compared to the size of their local youth population. For example, Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride’s 61-vote majority in Central Devon contrasts with over 2,000 local 16-17-year-olds. Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s majority of 528 in Ilford North is dwarfed by over 3,100 young residents, while Jess Phillips in Birmingham Yardley has a 693-vote lead against more than 3,300 potential new voters.
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Reform UK seats also appear at risk, including Richard Tice’s 2,010-vote cushion in Boston and Skegness, where 2,551 youth voters reside. The assumptions here are extreme: that every eligible 16 and 17-year-old votes and unanimously opposes the incumbent, an unlikely but impactful scenario.
Turnout is a critical factor. Ipsos data indicates only 37% turnout among 18-24-year-olds in the last election, the lowest of any age group, suggesting actual influence may be more modest.
The list of vulnerable constituencies is extensive, featuring seats with narrow majorities and large youth populations. These include Hendon (Labour, 15 votes majority/3,394 youth), Poole (Labour, 18/1,920), Basildon and Billericay (Conservative, 20/2,786), and many others across the political spectrum and regions of the UK.
Some constituencies have notably high proportions of 16-17-year-olds, such as Birmingham Ladywood at 6%, with others like Bradford West, Barking, and Slough at 5%. This demographic presence underscores the potential impact of lowering the voting age.
Overall, Labour’s plan to enfranchise 16 and 17-year-olds could not only increase youth participation but also reshape the electoral map, putting many MPs’ seats at greater risk depending on how these young voters engage with the political process.