For decades, many believed a vote for a third party was a wasted vote. Today, that assumption feels outdated. The traditional two-party dominance, represented by Labour and Conservatives, is no longer a given. The political landscape is evolving, and in 2029, Bath might not follow the old binary.
The Liberal Democrats now hold 72 seats in the House of Commons, making them the third-largest party and closing the gap with the Conservatives, who have 116 MPs. Meanwhile, Reform is gaining momentum, challenging Tory strongholds, and the Greens shocked the nation when they took the Gorton and Denton seat from Labour earlier this year. Both Reform and Green parties have seen significant membership growth, signaling a political shift that can no longer be ignored.
So, what does this mean for Bath? Could Reform sweep in, or will the Greens make their breakthrough? Or will incumbent Liberal Democrat MP Wera Hobhouse successfully defend her seat?
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Wera Hobhouse, who has represented Bath since 2017 and has weathered challenges from both left and right, acknowledges Reform as her biggest concern. “I try to think ‘no, not in Bath,’ but we have to recognize Reform as a very big power,” she says. In the last election, she secured 41.2% of the vote, comfortably outpacing Labour’s 18%, but she is cautious. Hobhouse attributes Reform’s rise to widespread anti-establishment sentiment: “They are the party people turn to in their despair.” Yet, she doubts Reform’s ability to deliver tangible benefits for everyday people.
In contrast, Green Party Radstock councillor Dom Tristram offers a different perspective. Having stood for Bath twice, he dismisses Reform’s chances, pointing to Bath’s youthful, well-educated demographic—a voter base likely to support progressive politics—and relatively low immigration levels, which are central to Reform’s platform. Dom envisions a battle between the Lib Dems and Greens, especially as the Green Party membership has tripled nationally since September 2025 and now tops 200,000, with around 1,300 members in Bath.
Despite limited resources and no official office in Bath, the Greens’ momentum cannot be ignored. Dom hopes the Greens can at least secure second place, emphasizing that Green voters are not chasing easy political victories; “There are no safe seats.”
Wera Hobhouse agrees that dividing the progressive vote is risky. “Splitting that vote is just barmy,” she warns. Highlighting the 2015 election where Conservative Ben Howlett won Bath with the Liberal Democrats narrowly behind and Greens capturing more than 5,000 votes, she stresses the danger: “If we split the vote, before you know it, we have Reform.”
Of course, this presumes all Green voters would back the Liberal Democrats if the Greens weren’t standing, which may not be the case. Some might support Labour or abstain. Still, Hobhouse believes vote splitting was the key factor in Tory victories.
Labour’s presence in Bath is surprisingly modest despite their national government majority. Dom cites how the Green Party has attracted left-leaning voters disillusioned with Labour under Keir Starmer’s leadership. Wera isn’t too concerned about Labour either, recalling that in 2017 Labour came third in Bath with 14.7% of the vote and is unlikely to improve on that.
With three years until the next general election, the political map in Bath remains uncertain and fluid. The growing momentum of Reform and Greens, coupled with the enduring Liberal Democrat presence, paints a complex and competitive picture for 2029.
Local Reform Party representatives were unavailable for comment.