Bath’s Political Landscape Shifts: Could a Green or Reform MP Win in 2029?

For years, many believed that voting for a third party was essentially a wasted vote. But that notion no longer holds true. As we approach the 2026 political climate, the idea of “third parties” seems outdated: Labour and the Conservatives no longer clearly dominate the political arena in the way they once did.

The binary of red and blue has fractured. The Liberal Democrats now hold 72 seats in the House of Commons, making them the third largest party and not far behind the Tories, who hold 116 seats. Meanwhile, Reform is gaining momentum close behind the Conservatives, and the Greens shocked the political world earlier this year by winning the historically Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton. Both parties have also seen substantial growth in membership.

This rise means no one can ignore the influence of these emerging parties—especially in Bath. Could the city’s parliamentary seat swing to Reform or the Greens? Or will incumbent Liberal Democrat MP Wera Hobhouse maintain her hold?

Wera Hobhouse acknowledges the challenge: “I try to think, ‘not in Bath,’ but we must recognize Reform as a significant force.” Having secured her seat three times (2017, 2019, and 2024), Hobhouse has faced opposition from both sides. She retained 41.2% of the vote in 2024 against Labour’s 18%, despite Labour’s national surge. Yet she remains vigilant, citing widespread anti-establishment sentiment as a key driver behind Reform’s rise. “People turn to Reform in their despair,” she says, but she doubts they can effectively serve the average voter.

Green Party Radstock town councillor Dom Tristram offers a different perspective: “Reform won’t gain traction in Bath.” Having run as a Green candidate twice in Bath (2015 and 2024), Dom argues that Bath’s young, educated electorate favors progressive politics, and that Reform’s focus on immigration—a less salient issue locally—won’t resonate as much. Instead, he predicts the next election in Bath will be a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

The Greens have tripled their national membership since September 2025 and now boast over 200,000 members, with around 1,300 in Bath alone. Fresh from their victory in Gorton and Denton, they are no longer a marginal player. Dom cautiously hopes they could secure second place in Bath next time, despite having fewer resources and no official local office. “It’s not a party people join for an easy path to power. There are no safe seats,” he admits.

Wera Hobhouse warns that dividing the progressive vote is risky: “Splitting the vote in Bath is just barmy.” She sympathizes with the Greens’ positions, but fears that vote-splitting could open the door for Reform. She recalls the 2015 election, when Conservative Ben Howlett won Bath. Liberal Democrat Steve Bradley finished second, trailing by around 3,800 votes, while the Green Party secured 5,000 votes—a margin that potentially decided the outcome.

This assumes that all Green voters would back the Lib Dems if the Greens hadn’t stood. Some might have preferred Labour, abstained, or spoiled their ballots. Yet Wera believes vote-splitting handed victory to the Tories. “I always said, if you don’t vote tactically, the Conservatives will win.”

Interestingly, Labour—despite leading the government with a strong majority—does not seem to represent the primary threat locally. Dom notes the Greens’ gains have largely come at Labour’s expense, particularly as left-wing Labour supporters feel alienated under Starmer’s leadership. Wera is unconcerned about a Labour resurgence in Bath, citing Labour’s third-place finish with 14.7% of the vote in 2017 despite heavy campaigning.

Looking ahead, much remains uncertain. The general election is likely three years away—enough time for political tides to shift dramatically. Bath’s political future is wide open, with several parties vying for influence.

When approached, the local Reform Party representatives were unavailable for comment.